New York is among eight states expected to lose at least one congressional seat after the 2020 Census count, the Electronic Data Service (EDS) projects.
Other states expected to lose a congressional seat due to population losses or stagnancy are California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia, according to the report.
“Estimates show that now 15 states will be impacted by changes in their congressional delegation if these new [census] numbers were used for apportionment today,” the EDS report states.
States expected to gain congressional seats include Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas.
“All other states would keep the same number of representatives they were awarded in December 2010 when the official 2010 Census numbers were released,” EDS adds.
Kimball Brace, president of EDS, Inc. noted that population projections are subject to change.
“We are now at a place where the rubber meets the road,” he said. “How well does the Census Bureau and the Trump administration put on the greatest mobilization of government resources outside of war time? How well will the public respond and answer the Census, given the competing focuses of everyday life and the need to utilize the internet?”
According to the latest Census Bureau report, 10 states lost population between 2018 and 2019, four of which reported losses of more than 10,000 people. New York reported having the greatest population loss of 76,790 people, or 0.4 percent.
The report also found that 27 states and the District of Columbia lost population through net domestic migration between 2018 and 2019, six of which had losses of over 25,000, and three of which experienced losses greater than 100,000.
New York ranked second, behind California, for having the greatest net domestic migration loss of 180,649 people.
According to a 2010-2040 New York City Population Projections report, New York City’s population was projected to increase from 8.4 million in 2010 to 8.7 million in 2020, and 9.1 million in 2030.
But Census data indicates a different trend. In 2018, an estimated 277 people left New York City every day.
“New York State is committed to ensuring a full count of all New Yorkers,” New York’s 2020 Census website states. The state has “dedicated resources and expertise to develop a comprehensive, collaborative and ongoing effort to identify hard-to-count populations and identify the most effective ways to encourage participation in the census,” it adds.
EDS clarifies that the 2020 Presidential election and Electoral College vote will occur before the 2020 Census results are released by Dec. 31, 2020. The 2020 Electoral College will be governed by the state’s current apportionment allocation determined in 2011.