Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state - either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration and natural population change resulting from births and deaths can cause significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.

Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities - which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax.

According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Arizona's population is projected to expand by 26.1% between 2020 and 2040 - an increase of 1,897,585 people. If the Cooper Center's projections bear out, Arizona's ranking as the 14th most populous state will remain unchanged, also taking into account population changes in other states.

The projected change is in keeping with the trend of the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Arizona climbed by 13.7%, or 876,677 people.

A full methodological explanation for how these projections were calculated can be found here.

 

RankNameProjected 2020 to 2040 pop. change (%)2020 population2020 rank2040 projected population2040 rank
1Texas35.229,604,099240,015,9132
2North Dakota34.3789,403471,060,45745
3Utah34.13,240,569304,344,33929
4Florida32.021,877,257328,886,9833
5Colorado31.75,843,359207,692,90717
6Nevada30.13,119,265324,058,37130
7Washington27.37,681,818139,776,12612
8Arizona26.17,268,694149,166,27914
9Idaho25.41,777,249392,227,84236
10South Carolina22.55,184,564236,352,50222
11Oregon21.04,267,534275,164,04124
12North Carolina19.810,568,033912,658,9277
13Georgia19.510,725,351812,820,2715
14Delaware17.9987,393451,164,34444
15South Dakota17.0891,688461,043,03247
16Montana15.01,074,635431,236,30443
17California14.940,438,640146,467,0011
18Virginia14.18,655,021129,876,72811
19Tennessee14.06,861,856167,823,66215
20Minnesota12.05,683,666226,364,88620
21Nebraska12.01,956,876372,190,91837
22Hawaii11.41,453,902401,619,70340
23Maryland11.16,161,345196,842,90219
24Oklahoma10.94,001,180284,439,03828
25Massachusetts10.96,982,092157,742,62816
26Alaska9.1751,32848819,95448
27Louisiana6.74,742,900255,062,78025
28Iowa6.53,184,240313,392,78332
29Arkansas5.93,038,491333,217,53533
30Indiana5.36,737,581177,095,00018
31Wyoming5.2585,38050615,78749
32Kentucky4.84,498,533264,714,76127
33New York4.220,031,150420,873,4884
34New Jersey4.29,088,074119,470,01213
35Kansas3.32,936,212353,032,65334
36Missouri3.26,161,471186,359,97021
37New Hampshire3.01,352,917411,393,45141
38Alabama3.04,911,278245,056,79626
39Wisconsin2.75,837,176215,997,13723
40New Mexico1.32,099,134362,127,31838
41Ohio0.411,705,262711,751,5409
42Pennsylvania-0.312,844,885512,809,1506
43Michigan-0.39,992,315109,960,11510
44Rhode Island-0.71,062,334441,055,31846
45Maine-0.91,338,780421,326,15942
46Mississippi-0.92,990,498342,962,16035
47Connecticut-1.43,593,542293,542,70731
48Illinois-3.112,791,188612,397,5648
49Vermont-3.4622,86849601,86550
50West Virginia-7.81,801,966381,661,84939