(The Center Square) – A new poll out of Arizona – one of four states that will vote Tuesday – shows that former Vice President Joe Biden would defeat President Donald Trump in November’s general election, but that Trump would beat Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The poll, conducted March 3 and 4 by OH Predictive Insights, shows Biden beating Trump 49 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Biden’s lead is within the poll’s 7 percent margin of error.
The same poll shows Trump defeating Sanders 45 percent to 38 percent, right at the margin of error, with 16 percent undecided. The telephone survey included a sample of 600 likely general election voters and was broken down to accurately represent the state’s party affiliation, gender, race and age.
“If Arizona Democrats want a shot at flipping Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes in their favor for the first time since 1996, former VP Joe Biden is the wise choice on March 17,” OH Predictive Insights Managing Partner Mike Noble said in a press release. “The negatives attached to Bernie Sanders may be too great to overcome to put Arizona in the blue column in November.”
The same poll in December showed Trump beating Biden by 2 percentage points and Sanders by 13.
Less than three-quarters of respondents who favor Biden over Trump also said they would vote for Sanders over Trump if he were to be the nominee.
Biden’s support in Arizona compared to Sanders is primarily due to his popularity among Hispanic and Latino voters. He leads Trump in that demographic 63 percent to 27 percent, while Sanders leads Trump by less than 10 points, 34 percent to 27 percent.
Biden leads Sanders in an average of Arizona Democratic primary polls 51 percent to 32 percent. The two were scheduled to participate in a debate Sunday evening in Phoenix, but the Democratic National Committee has announced the event will now be held at CNN’s Washington, D.C., studios without a live audience due to concerns over the coronavirus. The debate begins at 8 p.m.
Univision President Jorge Ramos, whose organization is co-sponsoring the event, has stepped down as a moderator over concerns he has been exposed to the virus.
In national polling, a survey conducted by YouGov March 10 and 11 shows Biden and Sanders both beating Trump by 4 points and 3 points, respectively.
Results from other states, however, paint a different picture. Various polls show Trump beating both Biden and Sanders in Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.